Up or down

Trade: XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

100% YES 0% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$0
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
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Open Interest
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Market outcomes

XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET 100% YES0% NO

Market context

This market captures whether XRP/USD on Chainlink's data feed will close higher or flat over a five-minute window on 10 May 2026 between 9:00 and 9:05 AM Eastern Time. The 100% implied probability reflects the current orderbook positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty that the price will not decline during this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities on micro-timeframe markets typically emerge when liquidity is thin and early positions establish anchoring effects on subsequent orders.

Five-minute price movements in XRP historically show substantial variance, with intraday volatility regularly producing swings of 1–3% or more depending on broader crypto market conditions and trading volume. Markets of this granularity rarely sustain 100% probabilities unless there is genuine information asymmetry or one-sided positioning. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on Polymarket have occasionally resolved contrary to extreme probabilities when unexpected news or flash volatility occurs, though five-minute windows do constrain the window for major catalysts.

Traders should monitor XRP-specific developments in the days preceding 10 May, including regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or broader cryptocurrency policy shifts. General crypto market momentum and Bitcoin price action in the hours before 9:00 AM ET will likely dominate directional bias for XRP. The Chainlink feed itself carries settlement risk; any technical issues or data delays on that specific stream could affect resolution. Given the settlement window closes at 13:05 UTC on 10 May, traders have approximately four hours after the resolution window to assess any disputes.

Wikipedia Context

  • XRP Ledger

    The XRP Ledger (XRPL), also called the Ripple Protocol, is a cryptocurrency platform launched in 2012 by Ripple Labs. The XRPL employs the native cryptocurrency known as XRP, and supports tokens, cryptocurrency or other units of value such as frequent flyer miles or mobile minutes.

  • XP-PEN
    XP-PEN

    XP-PEN is a graphics tablet development and distribution company, originally established in Japan in 2005 by Taiwanese manufacturer P-Active and now headquartered in Shenzhen, China, with a research and development office in California, United States. In 2019, XPPen became a holding subsidiary of Hanvon Ugee Group, a graphics tablet manufacturer who, like XP

  • Xi Puppis
    Xi Puppis

    Xi Puppis is a multiple star system in the southern constellation of Puppis. With an apparent visual magnitude of 3.35, it is one of the brighter members of this constellation. Based on parallax measurements made during the Hipparcos mission, it is located approximately 1,200 light-years from the Sun, with a 7.5% margin of error.

  • XAP processor

    XAP is a 16-bit and 32-bit RISC processor architecture developed by Cambridge Consultants. Its design enables use in mixed-signal integrated circuits for sensor or wireless applications including Bluetooth, Zigbee, GPS, RFID or Near Field Communication chips. These integrated circuits are typically used in low-cost, high-volume products that are battery-powe

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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