Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for Nikkei 225 (NIK) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is higher than the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for NIK on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for Nikkei 225 (NIK) on Friday, May 1, 2026 is lower than the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for NIK on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On Friday, 1 May 2026, the Nikkei 225 will close either above or below the prior trading day's level. The market currently shows 100% implied probability for an up move, a reflection of how the order book is pricing the binary outcome. This extreme reading suggests either very thin liquidity at current prices or a consensus view that has solidified around upside momentum heading into the settlement window.
Single-day directional bets on the Nikkei have historically been difficult to predict with confidence, as overnight gaps, currency fluctuations and regional sentiment shifts can reverse intraday trends. The index closed 2024 near 33,500 and has traded in a broad range through early 2025, with daily moves often driven by Bank of Japan policy signals and US equity futures rather than domestic fundamentals alone. A 100% probability on either direction typically reflects either a structural imbalance in order flow or insufficient market participation at the extremes.
Traders should monitor late April economic data from Japan—particularly manufacturing PMI and labour market figures—alongside any Bank of Japan communications or US Federal Reserve statements that might influence yen carry trades. Golden Week holidays in Japan (29 April–5 May) can create thin trading conditions and exaggerated moves on lower volume. The prior trading day's close will be set either on Thursday, 30 April or, if that is a holiday, on the last business day before 1 May, making the reference point critical for settlement interpretation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$795 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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