Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price will close higher than or equal to its opening level during a five-minute window on 10 May between 12:45AM and 12:50AM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects minimal trading activity on Polymarket's order book during this specific micro-timeframe, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a structural mismatch between the settlement window and typical market hours. Five-minute price movements in crypto assets are inherently volatile and difficult to predict with confidence, which typically results in wide bid-ask spreads and sparse order book depth for such narrow windows.
Hyperliquid has experienced significant volatility since its mainnet launch in March 2024, with the token's price trajectory heavily influenced by derivatives exchange adoption metrics and broader altcoin sentiment. Historical precedent suggests that five-minute resolution markets on established tokens rarely attract meaningful trading volume unless they coincide with scheduled announcements or economic data releases. The absence of any announced catalyst during this specific window explains the zero probability reading—traders are pricing in maximum uncertainty rather than directional conviction.
Monitoring Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed directly will be essential for settlement verification, as spot market prices across exchanges can diverge slightly. Traders should note that this window falls outside standard US market hours, when crypto trading volumes typically decline and bid-ask spreads widen. Any overnight news regarding Hyperliquid's exchange partnerships or protocol updates could theoretically influence price action, though the compressed five-minute timeframe limits the practical impact of most announcements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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