Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Hyperliquid's price on the Chainlink HYPE/USD data stream closes higher or equal to its opening level during a five-minute window on 5 May at 5:05–5:10 AM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders have priced in a near-certain decline over this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities in five-minute windows typically emerge when the market perceives directional momentum or scheduled volatility catalysts, though they can also indicate thin liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads on the underlying contract.
Five-minute price movements in crypto assets are inherently difficult to predict with confidence, as they depend on microstructure dynamics, order flow timing, and whether any news or liquidations occur within that narrow band. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-window markets on established assets often revert to near 50% probability when examined across multiple similar intervals, since intraday noise typically dominates any directional signal. The current 0% reading is an outlier that warrants scrutiny of whether it reflects genuine conviction or simply sparse order book depth at extreme price levels.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements, exchange listings, or protocol updates are timed near the settlement window, as these could drive the directional bias the market is currently pricing. Hyperliquid's recent activity and any broader crypto market moves in the hours preceding 5:05 AM ET will likely influence whether the order book reprices before settlement. The Chainlink feed itself should be verified for any known latency or data quality issues that might affect final resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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