Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on whether Dogecoin's price according to Chainlink's DOGE/USD data feed is higher or equal at 2:20AM ET on 2 May 2026 compared to 2:15AM ET on the same date. The five-minute window is extremely narrow, making intraday volatility the primary driver rather than fundamental shifts in sentiment or adoption. Chainlink's oracle data serves as the authoritative price source, which may differ marginally from spot market prices across exchanges due to aggregation methodology and latency.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the difficulty of pricing directional movement over such compressed timeframes. Comparable ultra-short-duration cryptocurrency markets typically show extreme probabilities clustering near 50% or 100% because random walk behaviour dominates; the crowd's conviction here suggests either illiquidity in the order book or positioning that anticipates minimal price movement during this specific window. Historical five-minute DOGE/USD candles show roughly balanced up and down closes, though this varies by market conditions and time of day.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements, exchange maintenance windows, or macroeconomic data releases fall near the settlement window, as these can trigger brief volatility spikes. Dogecoin's price action typically correlates with broader cryptocurrency sentiment and Bitcoin movements; any significant news in the 24 hours preceding 2 May could establish directional bias. The Chainlink feed's update frequency and any potential data gaps should be verified against current network conditions closer to the settlement date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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