Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Dogecoin will trade during a five-minute window on 1 May 2026 between 18:55 and 19:00 ET. The market resolves to "Up" if DOGE/USD on Chainlink's data stream closes at or above its opening price for that interval, and "Down" otherwise. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for an upward move, reflecting either extreme bearish sentiment or illiquidity in this narrow five-minute contract.
Five-minute price movements in cryptocurrency are largely driven by intraday volatility and order flow rather than fundamental shifts. Historical precedent suggests that such tight timeframes produce near-random outcomes absent scheduled events or major news breaks. Dogecoin's typical five-minute volatility ranges between 0.5% and 2% depending on broader market conditions, making directional certainty difficult to establish. The 0% probability on the order book likely reflects thin liquidity rather than certainty of downward movement; such extreme probabilities in short-dated contracts often indicate sparse trading activity rather than conviction.
Traders should monitor whether any announcements or exchange listings occur near the settlement window, though major news typically affects longer timeframes. Broader Bitcoin and Ethereum price action in the hours preceding 18:55 ET will likely set the tone for altcoin sentiment. Chainlink's DOGE/USD feed depends on its underlying price oracles, so any feed disruptions would affect settlement. The five-minute window itself falls outside typical US market hours, potentially reducing institutional participation and increasing the role of retail and international trading activity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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