Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether BNB's price on the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream will close higher or equal on 7 May 2026 at 03:55 UTC compared to its opening at 03:50 UTC—a five-minute window. The 0% implied probability reflects the order book's current assessment that traders see negligible odds of upward movement during this specific interval. Chainlink's price feed aggregates data from multiple exchanges, smoothing volatility that might occur on any single venue. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Chainlink's published data rather than spot market prices, which can occasionally diverge during periods of network congestion or exchange-specific trading activity.
Five-minute price movements in BNB historically exhibit low predictability given the asset's typical intraday volatility. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on Polymarket have shown that extreme probability skews—such as 0% YES—often reflect either genuine consensus about directional bias or sparse liquidity in the order book creating wide spreads. BNB's correlation with broader crypto market sentiment means any significant news during the settlement window could influence price action, though five minutes provides minimal time for information to propagate and settle.
Traders should monitor whether any major announcements coincide with the settlement window, though the brevity makes this unlikely to be a primary driver. BNB's price behaviour typically depends on Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, regulatory developments affecting Binance, or chain-specific upgrades. The current 0% probability suggests the market expects either downward pressure or stasis during this interval, though illiquidity in the order book may be amplifying this signal.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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