Trade: BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

0% YES 100% NO

Opened 3 May 2026 · Settles 4 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: —
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $5

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Market outcomes

BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

0% YES

100% NO

Market context

This market captures a five-minute window for BNB pricing on 4 May 2026, settling against Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The resolution hinges on whether the asset closes at or above its opening level during the 6:20–6:25 AM ET interval. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the order book is pricing an expectation of downward movement or flat-to-negative drift during this specific window.

Five-minute price movements in major cryptocurrencies typically reflect intraday volatility patterns rather than fundamental shifts. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short windows for assets like BNB—which trades across multiple venues with substantial liquidity—rarely settle to "Up" when the market has priced them to zero. This reflects both the difficulty of predicting micro-timeframe directional moves and the reality that such tight windows often capture consolidation or minor pullbacks rather than sustained gains. The 0% probability indicates traders see downside risk or stagnation as the base case for this particular five-minute slot.

Catalysts during this window would be limited to real-time order flow, spot market movements across major exchanges, or any urgent announcements affecting BNB or the broader crypto market. The 6:20 AM ET slot falls outside major US market open hours, meaning traditional equity market catalysts are unlikely to drive movement. Chainlink's data feed aggregates pricing across multiple sources, so any significant discrepancy between venues could theoretically influence settlement, though such divergences are typically arbitraged away rapidly.

Wikipedia Context

BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas is a French multinational universal bank and financial services holding company headquartered in Paris. It was founded in 2000 from the merger of two of France's foremost financial institutions, Banque Nationale de Paris (BNP) and Paribas. It also incorporates many other major institutions through successive acquisitions, including Fortis Bank in
BNB Smart Chain (blockchain platform)
BNB Smart Chain (formerly Binance Smart Chain) is a public blockchain platform that uses a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism and provides smart contract functionality. The platform's native cryptocurrency is BNB. The system is part of the broader Binance ecosystem founded in 2017 by Changpeng Zhao and Yi He.
Bobby Petrino
Robert Patrick Petrino is an American college football coach who is the offensive coordinator at North Carolina. He served as the head football coach at Missouri State from 2020 to 2022. Petrino previously served as the head coach at the University of Louisville from 2014 until being fired during the 2018 season. He also held the post from 2003 to 2006. From
Bob Uecker
Robert George Uecker was an American professional baseball catcher and sportscaster who served as the play-by-play announcer for the Milwaukee Brewers of Major League Baseball (MLB) for 54 seasons. He was also an occasional television and film actor.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "BNB Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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