Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
BNB will trade during a five-minute window on 3 May 2026 from 14:10 to 14:15 ET. The market resolves based on whether the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream shows a price at 14:15 equal to or higher than the price at 14:10. Currently, the order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for an upward movement, indicating traders are pricing in a decline or flat close over this specific interval.
Five-minute price movements in major cryptocurrencies rarely sustain directional bias without triggering event-driven volatility. Historical precedent suggests that intraday micro-windows of this duration typically resolve to "Down" when no scheduled catalyst exists, as mean reversion and bid-ask dynamics dominate short-term price action. BNB's typical daily volatility ranges between 2–5%, yet compressing this into five minutes creates an asymmetric probability distribution favouring downward or neutral outcomes unless a discrete news event or liquidation cascade occurs precisely during the settlement window.
Traders monitoring this market should track whether any major exchange announcements, regulatory filings, or macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for early afternoon ET on that date. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple sources, so flash crashes or temporary exchange outages could trigger sharp moves. The zero probability currently priced suggests the market has settled on the statistical unlikelihood of upward momentum in such a compressed timeframe absent exogenous shocks. Any trader considering a contrarian position would need to identify a specific catalyst with sub-five-minute impact potential.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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