Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stinky, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578829902717374° N, 37.73960567273168° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
The market concerns whether Russian forces will capture any territory within Stinky, a small settlement in Donetsk Oblast, by 31 May 2026. Resolution depends on the Institute for the Study of War's publicly available map showing territorial control, with capture defined as any portion of the specified coordinates falling under Russian-controlled shading. The current 0% implied probability reflects the order book on Polymarket, where no traders are currently pricing in Russian advancement into this specific location within the settlement window.
Stinky lies in eastern Donetsk, an area where Russian forces have made incremental territorial gains throughout 2024 and into 2025, though progress has slowed considerably compared to 2022. Comparable small settlements in the region have changed hands multiple times, but the pace of Russian advance has decelerated significantly as Ukrainian defences have consolidated. The 0% probability suggests traders view either the location's current defensive strength or the timeframe as sufficient to prevent capture, though this represents an extreme confidence level given the fluid nature of the front line.
Traders monitoring this market should track ISW map updates, which occur regularly and serve as the binding resolution mechanism, alongside broader developments in Russian offensive operations in Donetsk. Recent reporting from military analysts indicates Russian forces remain focused on larger objectives like Pokrovsk and Kursk region consolidation. Any significant shift in Russian operational priorities toward eastern Donetsk settlements, or unexpected breakthroughs in the front line, would constitute material information for reassessing the current probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Russia enter Stinky by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $188 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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