Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Marco Rubio | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Donald Trump | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Bill Gates | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Steve Bannon | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Steven Tisch | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Noam Chomsky | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Bill Cosby | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market concerns whether public evidence will emerge confirming a specific individual's visit to Little St. James, Jeffrey Epstein's private island in the US Virgin Islands, by 30 June 2026. Resolution requires documented proof through flight logs, photographs, court records, sworn testimony, or public admission from the individual themselves. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability of "Yes", suggesting traders assess the likelihood of such evidence becoming public within the settlement window as minimal.
Historical precedent from Epstein-related disclosures offers limited guidance for calibrating this probability. The 2015 unsealing of documents in a civil defamation case named numerous individuals but did not definitively establish island visits for most. More recently, the 2023-2024 release of court filings from the Southern District of New York provided flight logs and testimony but did not comprehensively document all potential visitors. The narrow 1% probability reflects scepticism that additional corroborating evidence specific to this individual will surface and be authenticated within eighteen months.
Key catalysts include potential releases of remaining Epstein estate materials, ongoing litigation outcomes, or investigative journalism findings. The Trump administration's approach to classified document handling and federal records policy could influence whether sealed materials are released. Additionally, any new testimony from cooperating witnesses or civil settlements might generate documentary evidence. Traders should monitor announcements from the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York and developments in related civil cases, though the compressed timeline to mid-2026 constrains the window for such disclosures.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who visited Epstein's Island?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.8M in lifetime turnover and $238K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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