Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any United States passports containing images or representations of Donald Trump’s face are issued by the United States government by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The passports must actually be issued to U.S. citizens. Proposals, approvals, announcements that qualifying passports will be issued, or unreleased sample passports will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government and a consensus of credible information.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? | 67% YES | 33% NO |
The question centres on whether the U.S. government will issue passports bearing Donald Trump's likeness to citizens before the end of July 2026. This would represent an unprecedented departure from standard passport design conventions, which typically feature the presidential seal or other national symbols rather than individual portraits of sitting or former presidents. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 68% probability, reflecting meaningful trader conviction that such an issuance occurs within the 18-month window.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. U.S. passports have never featured a president's portrait in their standard design, and proposals to alter passport aesthetics typically require Congressional approval or executive action through the State Department. Comparable cases—such as commemorative coins or stamps honouring political figures—proceed through formal legislative or administrative channels and involve extended timelines. The absence of any announced initiative for Trump-branded passports, combined with the institutional inertia of State Department operations, historically would suggest lower probability. Yet the 68% reading suggests traders are weighting the possibility of executive action or legislative fast-tracking under a Trump administration more heavily than historical norms would predict.
Key catalysts include any formal announcement from the State Department or White House regarding passport redesign, Congressional action on passport legislation, or public statements from Trump or his administration signalling intent. Traders should monitor State Department procurement notices and legislative calendars. The timeline is compressed: passport design, approval, and mass production typically require 12–18 months minimum, meaning any initiative would need announcement and approval by late 2024 or early 2025 to meet the July 2026 deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $258 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 67%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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