Trade: Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump initiates a lawsuit against Jimmy Kimmel by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $838
- 24h Volume
- $91
- Open Interest
- $473
Market outcomes
| Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
Donald Trump initiating formal legal action against late-night host Jimmy Kimmel by the end of May 2026 represents a specific threshold: an actual filed lawsuit rather than public statements, threats, or announcements of intent. The market currently reflects a 3% implied probability, with Polymarket's order book pricing this outcome at substantial odds against resolution to "Yes".
Trump has a documented history of litigation, having filed numerous lawsuits throughout his business and political careers. However, suits against media figures and entertainers for on-air commentary present distinct legal and strategic considerations. Past cases involving Trump and media personalities—such as disputes with news outlets—have typically involved either settled matters or cases that proceeded through discovery without necessarily reaching trial. The low current probability suggests traders assess a meaningful gap between Trump's public criticism of Kimmel (which has occurred periodically) and the threshold of formal court filing.
Key catalysts to monitor include any significant escalation in public disputes between Trump and Kimmel, announcements from Trump's legal team regarding specific litigation plans, and developments in Trump's broader legal calendar through early 2026. Kimmel's show schedule and any particularly pointed on-air commentary could theoretically trigger action, though the historical pattern shows Trump's legal team typically reserves litigation for disputes involving business interests or defamation claims with clearer damages arguments. The settlement window extends through May 2026, providing roughly 18 months for such an event to materialise.
Wikipedia Context
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Trump SteaksTrump Steaks was a brand of steak and other meats that was licensed by Donald Trump. The brand was launched in May 2007 and was exclusively sold through The Sharper Image and QVC. Due to poor sales and a failure to live up to sales and product expectations, The Sharper Image discontinued the Trump Steaks product line in July 2007, just two months after its l
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TrumpismTrumpism is the political ideology behind Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, and his political base. It is often used in close conjunction with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) political movement. It comprises ideologies such as right-wing populism, right-wing antiglobalism, national conservatism, Christian nationalism, and ne
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Donald TrumpDonald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.
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Second presidency of Donald TrumpDonald Trump's second and current tenure as the president of the United States began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. He lost re-election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 2020, and then won against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Trump
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 3% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $3333 if YES resolves true — a 3233% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$838 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $91 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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