Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ksenia Smirnova and Elizaveta Gurianova in the ITF Women Kayseri, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 5:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ksenia Smirnova' if Ksenia Smirnova advances against Elizaveta Gurianova. This market will resolve to 'Elizaveta Gurianova' if Elizaveta Gurianova advances against Ksenia Smirnova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Elizaveta Gurianova | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ksenia Smirnova faces Elizaveta Gurianova in an ITF Women's event at Kayseri, scheduled for 28 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture, with the settlement window closing on 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Smirnova's advancement, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in her victory or minimal liquidity at current prices.
ITF tournaments at this level typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where match outcomes carry greater variance than higher-tier events. Historical precedent from comparable ITF fixtures shows that 100% probabilities rarely reflect genuine certainty; such extremes usually indicate thin order books rather than definitive form assessments. Smirnova and Gurianova's head-to-head records, recent ITF results, and ranking trajectories would normally inform baseline expectations, though public data on lower-ranked players remains sparse.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both players' participation as the event approaches, any injury announcements in the fortnight preceding 28 May, and weather conditions at the Kayseri venue. The seven-day delay clause embedded in settlement terms creates additional resolution risk; tournament scheduling disruptions at ITF level are not uncommon. Traders should monitor ITF official announcements and player social media for withdrawal notices, which would shift probabilities materially. The current extreme probability likely reflects limited market depth rather than underlying conviction about match outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Elizaveta Gurianova" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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