Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tiago Pereira and Gastao Elias in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Pereira' if Tiago Pereira advances against Gastao Elias. This market will resolve to 'Gastao Elias' if Gastao Elias advances against Tiago Pereira. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Match O/U 21.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Match O/U 22.5 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias Set 1 Winner | 54% YES | 46% NO |
Tiago Pereira and Gastão Elias are scheduled to meet in the Oeiras 4 tournament on 11 May 2026 at 05:00 ET. The market currently reflects a 52% implied probability for Pereira's advancement, suggesting near-parity in the order book's assessment of the matchup. Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface and tournament context heavily influence outcomes. The settlement window closes on 18 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before the market resolves to a tie-break condition.
Historical performance on Portuguese clay surfaces provides the most relevant comparison point. Oeiras hosts a clay-court Challenger event, where home-nation players and clay specialists typically show measurable advantages. Pereira's record on clay relative to Elias's surface preferences will be the primary determinant of whether the current 52–48 split reflects genuine competitive balance or undervalues one player's court-specific strengths. Recent Challenger results from both players in the months preceding May 2026 will clarify their form trajectory.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger scheduling confirmations and any injury announcements from either player's camp. Tournament draws are typically finalised two weeks before competition begins. Weather disruptions on clay courts in Portugal during May are possible but historically infrequent. The match's early morning time slot (05:00 ET) may affect liquidity and information flow on Polymarket's order book, particularly for traders in European time zones where the match will occur during standard trading hours.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: Tiago Pereira vs Gastao Elias" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $998 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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