Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Luka Mikrut and Kilian Feldbausch in the Heilbronn, originally scheduled for June 1, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luka Mikrut' if Luka Mikrut advances against Kilian Feldbausch. This market will resolve to 'Kilian Feldbausch' if Kilian Feldbausch advances against Luka Mikrut. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Luka Mikrut and Kilian Feldbausch are scheduled to meet in the Heilbronn tournament on 1 June 2026. The match represents a lower-tier ATP Challenger event, where both players typically compete for ranking points outside the main tour circuit. Polymarket's order book currently reflects a 50–50 split, suggesting traders view this as a genuine toss-up with no clear favourite emerging from available information.
Mikrut and Feldbausch occupy similar positions in professional tennis rankings, both operating in the Challenger tier where surface preference, recent form, and head-to-head records carry outsized weight. Comparable Challenger matches at this level historically show volatile pricing when players have limited or no prior meetings; the 50–50 probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view. Traders should examine their recent tournament results, clay-court records (Heilbronn is played on clay), and any injury reports released in the weeks before the settlement window closes on 8 June.
Key catalysts include official tournament draws and seeding announcements, which typically arrive one to two weeks before play begins, and any withdrawal or injury statements from either player's camp. Weather disruptions or scheduling changes could trigger the 50–50 resolution clause if the match extends beyond seven days without completion. Current ATP Challenger standings and recent match statistics from both players' official profiles will provide the most reliable data for reassessing the probability as the event date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Kilian Feldbausch" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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