Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matej Dodig and August Holmgren in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matej Dodig' if Matej Dodig advances against August Holmgren. This market will resolve to 'August Holmgren' if August Holmgren advances against Matej Dodig. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Set 1 Winner | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Match O/U 21.5 | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren Match O/U 23.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Matej Dodig and August Holmgren are scheduled to meet in Zagreb on 11 May 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. The match is part of the ATP Challenger circuit, where both players compete regularly. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50–50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty amongst traders about the outcome. This even probability suggests neither player holds a decisive edge in the eyes of the market, though the shallow liquidity typical of lower-tier tennis matches means the probability may shift materially with modest order flow.
Dodig, a Croatian player competing on home soil, traditionally benefits from crowd support and familiarity with local court conditions—factors that have historically improved performance in ATP Challenger events by 3–5 percentage points for domestic competitors. Holmgren, a Swedish player, brings consistent Challenger-level experience but lacks the home-court advantage. Historical precedent in similar matchups between unseeded Challenger players shows that surface preference, recent form, and head-to-head records (if any exist) typically account for most variance in outcomes at this level.
Traders should monitor injury announcements or late withdrawals in the week before 11 May, as these commonly trigger settlement complications in lower-tier tennis markets. The settlement window extends to 18 May, allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling. Any cancellation, tie, or match abandonment without a clear winner will resolve the market to 50–50, so watch for weather forecasts and tournament scheduling updates from the ATP Challenger circuit as the date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Matej Dodig vs August Holmgren" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$531 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $474 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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