Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Barrios and Emilio Nava in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Emilio Nava. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Tomas Barrios. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava Set 1 Winner | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava Match O/U 21.5 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Tomas Barrios and Emilio Nava are scheduled to meet in the Oeiras 4 tournament on 14 May 2026 at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Barrios's advancement at 43%, reflecting modest confidence in the Spanish player despite home-court advantage in Portugal. Settlement occurs by 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion or rescheduling before the market resolves to a tie.
Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface and tournament tier significantly influence match outcomes. Barrios, ranked around 200–250 on the ATP, has shown inconsistent form across clay and hard courts, whilst Nava operates in a similar ranking band with stronger recent results on European clay. Historical precedent suggests that in Challenger-level matches between similarly-ranked players, the higher-seeded or more recent form-favoured player typically commands 55–65% implied probability; the current 43% for Barrios suggests the market views Nava as the marginal favourite or perceives elevated uncertainty.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger draws and any injury announcements in the week preceding the match, as both players' recent tournament participation and physical condition will shift the probability. Weather delays are common in May Portuguese tournaments and could trigger the seven-day rescheduling clause. Recent ATP Challenger results for both players, published on ATP.com, will provide the most current form data. The relatively tight pricing suggests limited public conviction, leaving room for movement if either player's pre-match preparation or draw position changes materially.
Tomás Olías Gutiérrez is a Spanish former footballer who played mostly as a central defender.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Emilio Nava" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$668 in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $668 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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