Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | 13% YES | 87% NO |
OpenAI's declaration of achieving artificial general intelligence before the end of 2026 represents a significant threshold in the company's development trajectory. The market currently prices this outcome at 13% probability, reflecting substantial scepticism that such an announcement would occur within the next two years. This probability emerges from Polymarket's order book, where traders have balanced bullish positions against the technical and definitional hurdles required for AGI claims to gain credibility.
Historical precedent suggests caution in evaluating AGI timelines. Previous capability announcements from leading AI laboratories—including claims around GPT-4's reasoning abilities in 2023 and subsequent model releases—have not triggered AGI declarations despite significant performance improvements. The definitional ambiguity surrounding AGI itself creates friction; no consensus exists on what capabilities constitute genuine general intelligence versus narrow task performance. OpenAI's own leadership has historically avoided definitive AGI claims, instead emphasising incremental capability gains. This restraint, combined with the reputational risk of premature declarations, anchors the market's relatively low probability.
Traders should monitor OpenAI's scheduled model releases and quarterly announcements through 2026, particularly any shifts in leadership rhetoric around AGI timelines. Recent reporting from Bloomberg and The Information has suggested internal discussions about capability roadmaps, though no concrete AGI milestones have been publicly committed. Regulatory developments and competitive pressure from other labs—notably Anthropic and Google DeepMind—may influence OpenAI's announcement strategy. The resolution criteria's reliance on "official information" and "credible reporting consensus" means that ambiguous or disputed claims would likely face scrutiny rather than automatic settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$69K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 13%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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