Trade: Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $47K
- Total Volume
- $19K
- 24h Volume
- $5K
- Open Interest
- $9K
Market outcomes
| claude-opus-4-6 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| claude-opus-4-7-thinking | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| gemini-3-pro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| gpt-5.5-high | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| muse-spark | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 1% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranks large language models based on head-to-head comparison results from user interactions. This market resolves to whichever model holds the highest rank on the "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard on 16 May 2026, using the style-control-off configuration. The current order book on Polymarket prices the "Other" category at 98% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which specific model will lead eighteen months from now. This pricing suggests the market expects either continued dominance by an existing leader or emergence of a model not yet listed as an explicit option.
Historical leaderboard dynamics show rankings shift gradually rather than dramatically. OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude variants have maintained top positions across multiple evaluation periods, though newer entrants periodically challenge incumbents. The 2% probability assigned to the explicit "best model" options reflects the difficulty in predicting which single architecture will achieve the highest Elo rating by mid-2026, given the rapid iteration cycles in the sector and the leaderboard's sensitivity to user preference distributions.
Key catalysts include major model releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta throughout 2024–2026. Leaderboard composition changes when developers submit models for evaluation, and ranking shifts depend on accumulated user votes rather than publication dates. Traders should monitor announcements of new model versions and track intermediate leaderboard snapshots, as the May 2026 snapshot represents a single point-in-time measurement that could favour whichever organisation releases a competitive model closest to the resolution date.
Wikipedia Context
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Best AiBest Ai is the first greatest hits album by Japanese-American singer-songwriter Ai, released on September 16, 2009, by Island Records and Universal Sigma. The album was released in three editions: limited CD+DVD, CD only and "Arienai Price" (low-priced) editions. Best Ai debuted at number 2 on the daily Oricon albums chart but switched back and forth between
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Best AirlinesBest Airlines was a small airline that flew to a miscellaneous and changing group of cities in the Mid-Atlantic United States in the mid-1980s. Their headquarters was in the Covington, Kentucky area which is near the Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International Airport. The May 15, 1983 timetable indicates headquarters in Florence, KY and the January 7, 1985 t
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Best AirBest Air was an airline in Bangladesh serving both domestic and international destinations from Shahjalal International Airport.
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The Best (Ai album)The Best is the second greatest hits album by Japanese-American singer-songwriter Ai, released on November 25, 2015, by EMI Records. It primarily features songs that were released as singles from her studio albums, including "Story" from Mic-a-holic Ai (2005), "Happiness" from Independent (2012), "Dear Mama" from Moriagaro (2013), and a solo cover version of
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$19K in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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