Trade: Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Bilibili Gaming's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the Bilibili Gaming Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Bilibili_Gaming) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: Bin, Wenbo, Xun, Knight, Yxl, Viper, and ON. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $91
- Total Volume
- $113
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $113
Market outcomes
| Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? | 26% YES | 74% NO |
Market context
Bilibili Gaming, one of China's premier League of Legends organisations, currently fields a seven-player roster including top laner Bin and mid laner Knight. The market settles Yes if any player joins or departs this active lineup before 30 June 2026, with the settlement window spanning approximately eighteen months from market creation. The 27% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders pricing in a meaningful but minority chance of roster disruption during this period.
Chinese esports organisations typically conduct roster evaluations during two primary windows: the off-season following Worlds (November–December) and the mid-season transfer period (May–June). Bilibili Gaming's recent competitive performance and internal management decisions will determine whether they pursue changes. Historical precedent from comparable LPL organisations shows that rosters remain stable roughly 70–75% of the time across eighteen-month windows, though high-profile teams occasionally make adjustments to address perceived weaknesses or capitalise on available talent. The current probability aligns with this baseline stability expectation.
Traders should monitor LPL off-season announcements and mid-season transfer rumours, particularly surrounding the May–June 2026 window when Chinese teams typically announce roster moves. Official statements from Bilibili Gaming management, player contract announcements, and regional esports news outlets will provide settlement-relevant signals. The organisation's performance in spring and summer 2026 competitions may also influence management's appetite for changes, though such decisions typically emerge through formal announcements rather than performance-driven speculation.
Wikipedia Context
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Bilibili GamingBilibili Gaming (BLG) is a professional esports organisation based in China. It was formed in December 2017, when Bilibili, a Chinese video sharing website, acquired the I May League of Legends roster. The team expanded into Overwatch in March 2019 with the formation of an Overwatch Contenders academy team for the Hangzhou Spark, an Overwatch League team own
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Bilibili_Gaming. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 26% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $385 if YES resolves true — a 285% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$113 in lifetime turnover and $91 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 26%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Bilibili_Gaming. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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