Sports

Trade: Süper Lig Winner

Opened 10 October 2025 · Settles 24 May 2026 · 21 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed team that is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Turkish Süper Lig. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the Süper Lig title (e.g., mathematical elimination before the end of the season), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.” If the 2025-26 Süper Lig season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the Turkish Football Federation (https://www.tff.org/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $150K
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $37K

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Market outcomes

Alanyaspor	0% YES	100% NO
Başakşehir	0% YES	100% NO
Eyüpspor	0% YES	100% NO
Fenerbahçe	0% YES	100% NO
Gaziantep	0% YES	100% NO
Kasımpaşa	0% YES	100% NO
Trabzonspor	0% YES	100% NO
Göztepe	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

The 2025–26 Turkish Süper Lig season will determine which club finishes atop the domestic football pyramid in Turkey. The championship is decided through a standard league format, with the title awarded to the team with the most points after all matches conclude. The settlement window closes on 24 May 2026, aligning with the typical end of the Turkish football calendar. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects a 0% implied probability for the listed team, indicating either illiquidity in the market or a structural issue preventing meaningful price discovery at present.

Historical context suggests the Süper Lig title typically contests between established powerhouses. Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe, and Beşiktaş have dominated recent seasons, with occasional challenges from Trabzonspor. The 0% probability on the order book may reflect early-season positioning before sufficient trading volume accumulates, a common pattern in markets with extended settlement windows. Comparable football league markets on Polymarket often show minimal initial activity until the season progresses and competitive dynamics clarify.

Key catalysts include the official Turkish Football Federation fixture schedule, injury announcements affecting top-tier squads, and mid-season transfer activity. Traders should monitor any structural disruptions to the league calendar, though permanent cancellation remains unlikely given the institutional stability of Turkish football governance. The resolution mechanism depends entirely on official TFF designation, making federation communications the primary information source throughout the season.

Wikipedia Context

Süper Lig
The Süper Lig, also known as Trendyol Süper Lig for sponsorship reasons, is a professional association football league in Turkey and the highest level of the Turkish football league system. Eighteen teams compete, where a champion is decided and three clubs are promoted from, and another three relegated to the 1. Lig. The season runs from August to May, with
2007–08 Süper Lig
The 2007–08 Süper Lig season,, was the 50th anniversary of top-flight professional football in Turkey. It was won by Galatasaray, who won their 17th championship.
2013–14 Süper Lig
The 2013–14 Süper Lig was the 56th season of the Süper Lig, the highest tier football league of Turkey. The season began on 17 August 2013. Galatasaray were the defending champions, but Fenerbahçe matched their league title record of 19 after drawing 0–0 with Çaykur Rizespor on 27 April.
2014–15 Süper Lig
The 2014–15 Süper Lig was the 57th season of the Süper Lig, the highest tier football league of Turkey.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Süper Lig Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$150K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Süper Lig Winner"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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