Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Serie A game between AS Roma and ACF Fiorentina, scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina match originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
AS Roma will host ACF Fiorentina on 4 May 2026 in a Serie A fixture, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across Polymarket's order book, indicating no traders are pricing any specific scoreline at meaningful odds. This reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in predicting exact match outcomes months in advance, where thousands of possible results exist and liquidity typically concentrates on broader markets like match winner or total goals.
Historical Serie A matches between these clubs demonstrate the difficulty of exact-score prediction. Roma and Fiorentina have produced varied results over recent seasons, ranging from 1–1 draws to 3–2 victories, with no single scoreline appearing with sufficient frequency to justify elevated probability. The current 0% reading on Polymarket's book suggests either minimal trading activity in this specific market or rational pricing that reflects the inherent difficulty of pinpointing exact outcomes when both teams' form, injuries and tactical approaches remain fluid across a nine-month period.
Traders monitoring this market should track squad stability through the 2025–26 season, particularly injuries to key attacking or defensive players at either club. Managerial changes at Roma or Fiorentina could materially shift expected goal-scoring patterns. Recent fixture congestion, European competition involvement and domestic cup runs will influence team selection and fatigue levels approaching May. The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC on match day, allowing only the official final whistle to determine resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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