Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 12, 2026 between Aberdeen FC and St Mirren FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Aberdeen FC | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Aberdeen FC vs. St Mirren FC) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| St Mirren FC | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Aberdeen FC and St Mirren FC will meet in a Scottish Premiership fixture on Tuesday, 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting near-parity in market expectations for the result. This probability is formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where participants continuously price in available information about team form, injuries, and fixture context.
Historically, Aberdeen and St Mirren have produced competitive encounters in the Scottish Premiership, with neither club commanding a decisive advantage in recent seasons. Aberdeen finished fourth in the 2024–25 campaign, whilst St Mirren secured fifth place. Head-to-head records between the sides show relatively balanced results over the past three seasons, with both teams capable of winning away from home. The 47% probability reflects this competitive equilibrium rather than a clear favourite emerging from the market.
Traders should monitor team news in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly injury announcements affecting key players. Aberdeen's squad depth and St Mirren's form trajectory in April and early May will be material to reassessment. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season may affect player availability and fatigue levels. Additionally, any managerial changes or significant tactical shifts announced before the match could shift the probability materially. Settlement occurs immediately after full-time, with the order book remaining active until the scheduled closing time of 18:45 UTC on match day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Aberdeen FC vs. St Mirren FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $235K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: