Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between AVS Futebol and FC Porto.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AVS Futebol | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Porto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On Sunday, 10 May 2026, AVS Futebol will host FC Porto in a Primeira Liga fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability of a Porto victory or draw, with the YES position trading at that level. This pricing emerges from real-time matching between buyers and sellers, with the settlement window closing at 17:00 UTC on match day.
Porto enters the 2025–26 season as one of Portugal's traditional top-three sides, typically competing for the title alongside Benfica and Sporting CP. AVS, by contrast, has historically occupied a mid-table position in the Primeira Liga. Historical head-to-head records and recent form disparities suggest Porto holds a substantial advantage in this fixture. The 87% probability reflects both the structural quality gap between the clubs and market participants' assessment of likely outcomes—a win for Porto or a draw being weighted as significantly more probable than an AVS victory.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly injury reports for Porto's key players and any late fixture rescheduling. Primeira Liga standings and form in April and early May will also inform whether either side enters the match with momentum or fatigue from competing for European qualification or avoiding relegation. Weather conditions on the day and any managerial changes announced before the fixture could shift market sentiment, though the current pricing already reflects baseline expectations for a Porto-favoured contest.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AVS Futebol vs. FC Porto" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$237K in lifetime turnover and $484K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $231K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligaportugal.pt/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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