Trade: New WNBA CBA agreement by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the date on which the WNBA and WNBA players association sign a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The listed market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of signing is between market creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the listed market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, a CBA is considered ‘executed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the WNBA and the WNBA Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $306
- Total Volume
- $18K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
Market context
The WNBA and its players association must negotiate and execute a new collective bargaining agreement by 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial time remaining and the absence of any signed agreement to date. This probability is formed by the spread between bids and asks among traders, with no current market depth supporting a YES position at meaningful odds.
The WNBA's most recent CBA was ratified in 2020 and runs through the 2024 season, establishing a historical precedent for multi-year labour agreements in the league. Previous negotiations have typically commenced 12–18 months before expiration, with formal discussions beginning in earnest once the existing deal enters its final year. The 2020 agreement took approximately four months of active negotiation following the union's initial proposal, though the timeline varied considerably from earlier cycles. Given the 2024 expiration, formal talks would ordinarily commence in late 2023 or early 2024.
Traders should monitor announcements from WNBA commissioner's office and WNBA Players Association leadership regarding negotiation commencement, which typically signal movement toward a settlement window. Recent reporting on player compensation demands—particularly regarding salary floors, revenue sharing, and marketing rights—will shape negotiation complexity. The settlement window extends to mid-2026, providing approximately 18 months from typical negotiation start dates, though the 0% probability suggests the market currently discounts near-term agreement likelihood or reflects minimal trading activity in this contract.
Wikipedia Context
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How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "New WNBA CBA agreement by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$18K in lifetime turnover and $306 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "New WNBA CBA agreement by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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