Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 23, 2026 between D.C. United SC and CF Montréal.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal) | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| CF Montréal | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| D.C. United SC | 46% YES | 55% NO |
D.C. United and CF Montréal will meet in an MLS regular-season fixture on Saturday, 23 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 27% implied probability for a D.C. United victory, pricing the away side as clear underdogs in this Eastern Conference matchup. Settlement occurs at the close of play that evening.
Historically, D.C. United have held a slight edge in the head-to-head record against Montréal, though recent seasons have seen the fixture become more competitive. Home advantage in MLS typically shifts win probability by 8–12 percentage points; Montréal's home ground at Stade Saputo presents a material factor in how traders are currently pricing this match. The 27% probability for a D.C. win aligns with typical away-side valuations in this league, though it reflects no particular recent form divergence between the clubs as of early 2026.
Traders should monitor team news through May, particularly injury status for key players and any late roster moves. MLS fixture congestion in late May—with concurrent continental and domestic competition—can affect squad rotation decisions and player availability. Weather conditions at Montréal on match day, whilst typically mild in late spring, occasionally influence play. Any official MLS announcements regarding venue changes or scheduling adjustments would alter the settlement conditions. Current odds suggest the market is pricing Montréal as modest favourites, with the remaining probability distributed between draws and away wins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "D.C. United SC vs. CF Montréal" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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