Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for May 9 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 59% YES | 42% NO |
The New York Mets travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks on 9 May at 7:15 PM ET in a regular season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for a Mets victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides as traders price in available information about roster strength, recent form, and ballpark factors.
The Mets and Diamondbacks have shown comparable competitive levels in recent seasons, with both franchises capable of sustained winning stretches. Historical head-to-head records between these National League opponents typically cluster around even splits, though home-field advantage at Chase Field in Phoenix has historically favoured the Diamondbacks by a modest margin. The current 51% probability for New York reflects a slight edge that traders are assigning, likely accounting for any recent performance differentials or injury status entering the fixture.
Key variables traders should monitor include starting pitcher assignments, which typically drive significant probability shifts in the days preceding a game, and any late roster moves or injury announcements from either club. Weather conditions at Chase Field—particularly temperature and wind patterns—can influence run-scoring environments. Recent form matters considerably; teams entering May with winning records tend to see their probabilities shift upward relative to underperforming clubs. The settlement window extends to 16 May 2026, allowing for postponements or rescheduling should weather or other factors delay the original fixture date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$316K in lifetime turnover and $731K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $314K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: