Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Michael Harris II | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Shota Imanaga | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| O'Neil Cruz | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| H | — | |
| I | — | |
| K | — | |
| L | — | |
| O | — | |
The 2026 MLB season will culminate with the National League awarding its Comeback Player of the Year honour to whichever player demonstrates the most compelling return from injury, illness, or performance decline during that campaign. The award's recipient is determined by a combination of voting by players, coaches, and media, making it inherently difficult to predict months in advance. Polymarket's current order book is pricing this outcome at 45% implied probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which players will qualify as compelling comeback narratives by season's end.
Historical precedent suggests the award typically goes to players who combine significant playing time with measurable statistical improvement over a prior baseline. Recent winners have included players returning from Tommy John surgery, major injuries requiring lengthy rehabilitation, or those rebounding from career-threatening performance slumps. The award's subjectivity—dependent on narrative weight and voter sentiment—means that a player's actual statistical performance matters less than the perceived magnitude of their return. This structural uncertainty has historically kept such markets in the 40–55% range when settlement remains distant.
Key catalysts for traders include the off-season roster moves announced between now and spring training, which will clarify which players are positioned for meaningful comebacks in 2026. Injury announcements affecting prominent players currently sidelined will reshape the field substantially. Additionally, early-season performance through June and July will begin narrowing the viable candidates, though the award's final determination occurs only after the regular season concludes in late September. Monitoring MLB injury reports and transaction news through 2026 will be essential for tracking shifting probabilities.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MLB: NL Comeback Player of the Year" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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