Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 6, 2026 between Reilac Shiga and Renofa Yamaguchi FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Reilac Shiga | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Reilac Shiga will face Renofa Yamaguchi FC in a J2 League fixture on 6 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match result. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing an extremely low likelihood of a specific result materialising—either a Reilac victory or draw, depending on the exact settlement criteria. This extreme pricing typically emerges when one outcome is heavily favoured or when liquidity remains sparse in early-stage markets.
J2 League matches between mid-table and lower-ranked sides historically show volatile results, particularly late in seasons when fixture congestion and motivation levels shift. Comparable matchups in Japan's second tier have seen upsets occur in roughly 15–20% of games involving teams separated by significant points, though current pricing suggests the market is discounting such scenarios heavily. The 0% reading may reflect either minimal trading activity establishing a floor price rather than genuine conviction about outcome probabilities.
Traders should monitor team news through April 2026, including injury updates, managerial changes, and final-day playoff implications that could affect squad rotation. Recent J2 season schedules typically see fixture lists confirmed 3–4 weeks prior to matches. Liquidity injection into this market—particularly if major sportsbooks or Asian betting syndicates begin trading—could substantially shift the implied probability from its current extreme level, as deeper order books tend to price outcomes more reflectively of underlying match conditions.
Reilac Shiga , formerly MIO Biwako Shiga , with "Biwako" being a reference to Lake Biwa, is a professional Japanese football club based in Hikone, Shiga Prefecture. They are set to play in the third-tier J3 League from the 2026–27 season, after promotion from the Japan Football League in 2025.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$19K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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