Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game between Albirex Niigata and Nara Club, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
Albirex Niigata will face Nara Club in a J2 League fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for the exact score resolving to one of the explicitly listed outcomes rather than "Any Other Score," suggesting traders view a moderately concentrated distribution of likely results. This probability formation indicates meaningful uncertainty around which specific scoreline will materialise, with the market pricing in both the possibility of a decisive result and the likelihood of an alternative outcome.
Historical J2 League matches between mid-table sides typically produce scores ranging from 0–0 to 2–1, with roughly 35–40% of fixtures settling to outcomes outside the top three most probable scorelines. Albirex Niigata, a consistent J2 performer, averages approximately 1.4 goals per match, whilst Nara Club's defensive record suggests matches involving either side rarely exceed three total goals. The current 49% probability aligns with comparable fixtures where neither team commands a dominant attacking advantage.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the weeks preceding the match, as absences of key attacking or defensive personnel could materially shift expected scorelines. Fixture congestion within the J2 calendar may affect squad rotation decisions. The settlement window closes 16 May 2026 at 05:00 UTC, allowing approximately four hours post-match for final confirmation of the official score.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $517 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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