Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Drew Van Orderlain and Martin Maldonado in the ITF Men Pensacola, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Drew Van Orderlain' if Drew Van Orderlain advances against Martin Maldonado. This market will resolve to 'Martin Maldonado' if Martin Maldonado advances against Drew Van Orderlain. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Pensacola: Drew Van Orderlain vs Martin Maldonado | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Drew Van Orderlain faces Martin Maldonado in an ITF Men's event scheduled for Pensacola on 13 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Van Orderlain's advancement, suggesting either substantial confidence in his superiority or limited liquidity depth at current pricing levels.
ITF Futures matches at this tier typically exhibit considerable volatility in outcomes, particularly when one player holds a significant ranking advantage or recent form edge. Historical data from comparable ITF events shows that heavily favoured players (those trading above 90% probability) advance roughly 85–90% of the time, with upsets occurring through injury, unexpected form collapse, or surface-specific advantages favouring the underdog. The current probability pricing may reflect Van Orderlain's superior ranking or recent tournament results, though the absence of public injury reports or withdrawal announcements warrants caution.
Traders should monitor the official ITF schedule and venue confirmations as the 13 May date approaches, particularly given the settlement window extends to 20 May. Any withdrawal, injury announcement, or weather disruption affecting the Pensacola venue could trigger resolution complications. Recent ATP and ITF scheduling disruptions have occasionally delayed lower-tier matches beyond the standard window, which would trigger the 50-50 tie-break clause. Confirmation of both players' participation and match completion status remains the primary catalyst determining settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Pensacola: Drew Van Orderlain vs Martin Maldonado" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$163 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $163 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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