Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nicholas Ionel and Laurin Aerne in the ITF Men Tsaghkadzor, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicholas Ionel' if Nicholas Ionel advances against Laurin Aerne. This market will resolve to 'Laurin Aerne' if Laurin Aerne advances against Nicholas Ionel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ITF Tsaghkadzor: Nicholas Ionel vs Laurin Aerne | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Nicholas Ionel and Laurin Aerne are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Tsaghkadzor tournament on 2 June 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting either strong conviction in match completion or minimal liquidity depth on Polymarket's order book. The settlement window extends to 9 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before triggering a 50-50 resolution.
ITF Futures events at the Tsaghkadzor venue have historically proceeded as scheduled, though weather disruptions and player withdrawals remain material risks at Armenian venues during early June. Comparable lower-tier professional tennis matches show cancellation rates of 2–4% and injury-related walkovers at roughly 1–2%, suggesting the current 100% probability may reflect either thin order-book depth or genuine confidence in fixture completion. Ionel and Aerne's recent match records and ranking trajectories would typically inform directional positioning, though ITF Futures draws attract limited media coverage.
Key catalysts include official ITF tournament confirmations, player injury announcements, and weather forecasts for the Tsaghkadzor region in early June. Any withdrawal by either competitor would immediately shift market dynamics. Traders should monitor the official ITF website and player social media for late-stage withdrawals or scheduling changes, particularly given the early morning ET start time, which may indicate logistical constraints. The seven-day grace period provides meaningful optionality if delays occur.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Tsaghkadzor: Nicholas Ionel vs Laurin Aerne" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$27K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $27K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: