Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Monday, June 22, 2026 between Norway and Senegal.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Senegal | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Norway | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Draw (Norway vs. Senegal) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Norway and Senegal are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 22 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Norway victory at 27 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that the Scandinavian side faces a significant underdog position in this fixture.
Historical matchups between these nations provide limited direct precedent; they last met in a 2022 World Cup qualifier which Norway won 1–0. However, the broader context matters more: Senegal reached the Africa Cup of Nations final in 2021 and qualified for the 2022 World Cup, demonstrating consistent competitive strength in recent tournaments. Norway, conversely, failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and has struggled in recent qualifying campaigns. Senegal's trajectory suggests a team with momentum and proven tournament experience, whilst Norway's absence from Qatar 2022 signals a relative decline in their competitive standing.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key players in both squads. Senegal's availability of established Premier League and Ligue 1 performers will be crucial to watch. The broader group composition—which teams Norway and Senegal face alongside their mutual fixture—may also shift market sentiment, as a group's difficulty profile influences perceived win probabilities. Fixture scheduling and any late tactical shifts from either national team coaching staff could move the order book before the settlement window closes on 23 June 2026.
Norway elects its legislature on a national level. The parliament, the Storting, has 169 members elected for a four-year term by a form of proportional representation in multi-seat constituencies.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Norway vs. Senegal" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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