Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Wednesday, June 17, 2026 between England and Croatia.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Croatia | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| England | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Draw (England vs. Croatia) | 24% YES | 76% NO |
England and Croatia will meet in a World Cup fixture on 17 June 2026, with the match forming part of the tournament's group stage. The current order book on Polymarket prices England's victory at 20 per cent implied probability, reflecting substantial backing for Croatia or a draw outcome. This valuation emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools rather than consensus forecasting.
Historical precedent offers useful calibration. England and Croatia last faced each other in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, where Croatia prevailed 2–1 after extra time en route to the final. That result shifted perceptions of the fixture's competitive balance, though squad composition, tournament format and group-stage dynamics differ materially from knockout play. England's subsequent Euro 2020 runner-up finish and World Cup quarter-final exit in 2022 provide additional reference points for assessing relative strength.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key personnel in midfield and attack for both sides. Fixture scheduling within the group stage—including opponent strength and match order—will influence both teams' tactical approach and motivation levels. Recent form in qualifying and any pre-tournament friendlies will provide concrete data on current playing condition. The 20 per cent probability suggests the market currently favours Croatia's defensive record and set-piece threat, though England's attacking depth remains a material variable in the settlement outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "England vs. Croatia" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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