Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Sunday, May 31, 2026 between Switzerland and Jordan.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Switzerland | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw (Switzerland vs. Jordan) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Jordan | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Switzerland will face Jordan in a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026. The Swiss are ranked significantly higher in world football standings and have substantially greater recent competitive experience at major tournaments, having qualified for the 2022 World Cup knockout stages. Jordan, by contrast, competes primarily in Asian confederation qualifying rounds and friendlies. Historical head-to-head records between nations of this calibre differential typically favour the higher-ranked side by a considerable margin, though friendly matches introduce greater variance than competitive fixtures. The current 51% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty—either reflecting genuine doubt about Swiss motivation in a non-competitive fixture, or indicating that traders are factoring in Jordan's home advantage if the match is played in Amman.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as friendly lineups often feature rotated or experimental selections that can shift expected performance substantially. The Swiss Football Association's fixture calendar and any concurrent club commitments for key players will influence team strength. Jordan's recent form in Asian qualifiers and any domestic league considerations merit tracking. Fixture scheduling details—venue confirmation, kick-off time, and whether either nation uses this match as preparation for other commitments—will clarify the intensity each side brings. The settlement window closes 31 May at 13:00 UTC, allowing minimal post-match trading window, so pre-match information flow will dominate price discovery on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Switzerland vs. Jordan" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$207 in lifetime turnover and $850 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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