Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Monday, June 1, 2026 between Canada and Uzbekistan.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Canada | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Canada vs. Uzbekistan) | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Uzbekistan | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Canada and Uzbekistan are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026. The match will serve as preparation for both nations ahead of their respective continental commitments later that summer. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for a Canada victory, suggesting near-parity in market expectations despite Canada's higher FIFA ranking and home-field advantage should the fixture be played in North America.
Canada has ranked consistently between 40th and 50th globally in recent years, whilst Uzbekistan typically sits in the 80–100 range. Historically, friendlies between teams of this calibre favour the higher-ranked side, though outcomes remain volatile given the reduced intensity of non-competitive fixtures. Recent Canada performances in World Cup qualification and Gold Cup tournaments show inconsistency—strong results mixed with unexpected defeats to lower-ranked opponents. Uzbekistan's Central Asian dominance does not reliably translate to success against CONCACAF sides, making direct precedent limited.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the fixture approaches, particularly for Canada's key attacking and defensive personnel. The venue confirmation—whether in Canada or a neutral location—will materially affect expectations. Fixture congestion in the 2025–26 season, with club campaigns overlapping international windows, may influence player availability and form. Any late postponement or cancellation would trigger settlement procedures, though no such disruptions have been reported as of early 2026. The settlement window closes 2 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing minimal time for post-match data verification.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Canada vs. Uzbekistan" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $840 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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