Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming EFL Championship game, scheduled for Friday, May 8, 2026 between Hull City AFC and Millwall FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hull City AFC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Millwall FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hull City and Millwall will meet in an EFL Championship fixture on Friday, 8 May 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extremely thin liquidity at the ask side or a complete absence of bids, a common pattern for lower-tier football matches where retail interest remains concentrated on Premier League fixtures. Settlement occurs at 19:00 GMT on match day, with standard three-way outcomes (home win, draw, away win) determining the result.
Historical precedent suggests Championship matches between mid-table or lower-ranked sides often trade at compressed probabilities on prediction markets, particularly when scheduled late in the season. Hull City and Millwall have occupied similar competitive tiers in recent seasons, making this a relatively balanced fixture by Championship standards. When comparable matches lack early trading volume, the zero-probability reading typically signals market indifference rather than genuine conviction about outcome likelihood.
Traders monitoring this market should track team news in the fortnight before 8 May, including injury confirmations and any managerial changes that could shift relative strength. Hull City's recent form and Millwall's home-ground advantage at The Den will be material factors once the fixture enters the final week. Polymarket's order book depth will likely increase as the match approaches, particularly if either club enters the final day with playoff implications or relegation concerns. Early entry positions may face wide spreads until institutional or informed retail participation materialises.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efl.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$165K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $159K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efl.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: