Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between China and Hong Kong, China scheduled for 2026-05-07 in T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to China will be considered correct if China is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Hong Kong, China will be considered correct if Hong Kong, China is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CHN | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| HON | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series women's match between China and Hong Kong on 7 May 2026 requires both a coin toss victory and match win for either team to settle YES. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting this compound outcome with precision. A single unfavourable toss result eliminates half the requirement, whilst match outcomes in women's T20 cricket remain inherently volatile across competitive fixtures.
Comparable double-outcome markets in cricket show that compound probabilities rarely exceed 15–20% for evenly matched sides, even when one team holds historical advantage. China's women's T20 programme has developed substantially since 2020, though Hong Kong remains the established regional performer. Historical head-to-head records and recent tournament form would typically anchor expectations, yet the 0% reading suggests traders currently see insufficient edge to price either outcome above negligible levels, or that order book depth remains thin at viable price levels.
Traders monitoring this fixture should track squad announcements closer to the match date, weather forecasts affecting pitch conditions, and any recent bilateral results between the sides. The Hong Kong Cricket Association and China Cricket Association typically confirm final squads five days before matches. Venue conditions at the designated ground will influence toss strategy and match dynamics materially. Settlement depends entirely on ESPN Cricinfo's official records, making their publication timing relevant for resolution certainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: China vs Hong Kong, China - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$946 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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