Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga (e.g. they mathematically cannot finish in 16th), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 16th place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bayern Munich | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| RB Leipzig | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Werder Bremen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 37% YES | 64% NO |
The 2025-26 Bundesliga season will determine which team finishes in 16th place, the final position in Germany's top division that triggers automatic relegation to the second tier. The team occupying this spot at the conclusion of the 34-match campaign on 31 May 2026 will be relegated, whilst the 15th-place finisher advances to a two-legged playoff against the third-tier champion. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a particular team's survival prospects or minimal liquidity in this specific market contract, with the crowd pricing suggesting near-certainty that the listed team will not occupy the relegation position.
Historically, Bundesliga relegation battles have proven volatile, with several teams recovering from mid-table danger to secure survival through January transfer activity and tactical adjustments. Recent seasons have shown that teams finishing 16th typically accumulate between 30 and 36 points across the full campaign. The probability formation on Polymarket depends on available order book depth and trader conviction; at 0%, the market may reflect either a team with substantial safety margins or insufficient trading activity to establish meaningful price discovery.
Traders should monitor the team's performance trajectory through autumn 2025, January transfer window activity, and managerial changes, as these factors historically shift relegation odds significantly. Bundesliga standings updates occur weekly throughout the season, providing regular data points for position reassessment. Any mathematical elimination from 16th place—occurring when a team's maximum possible points fall below competitors' minimums—would trigger automatic "No" resolution per market rules.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $21 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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