Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Bundesliga game between SV Werder Bremen and BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Werder Bremen will face Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the combined likelihood of one specific scoreline materialising from dozens of possible outcomes. With "Any Other Score" capturing all results not explicitly listed, exact-score markets typically concentrate probability mass on the most common final results, leaving individual scorelines with modest odds even for plausible matches.
Historical Bundesliga data shows that exact-score predictions face structural headwinds. Over recent seasons, roughly 60–70% of matches resolve to outcomes not pre-listed on such markets, meaning the "Any Other Score" category consistently captures the plurality of volume. Bremen and Dortmund's relative league positions, recent form, and head-to-head records will shape which specific scorelines traders consider most probable, but the fragmentation of probability across numerous possibilities keeps individual scores low.
Key variables for traders include team news closer to match day—injuries to key players, suspension status, and tactical adjustments—which typically emerge in the week preceding the fixture. Dortmund's European commitments and Bremen's mid-table standing may influence squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions and referee assignments, announced nearer the date, can also shift match dynamics. Any postponement would keep the market open until rescheduling is confirmed, extending the settlement window beyond the current deadline.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $46K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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