Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa do Brasil game, scheduled for Thursday, May 14, 2026 between AC Goianiense and CA Paranaense.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AC Goianiense | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Draw (AC Goianiense vs. CA Paranaense) | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| CA Paranaense | 41% YES | 59% NO |
AC Goianiense will face CA Paranaense in the Copa do Brasil on Thursday, 14 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 29% implied probability for a Goianiense victory, pricing them as underdogs in what is a knockout competition format where away goals or extra time may apply depending on the round structure.
Goianiense competes in Brazil's top division and has historically shown inconsistent domestic form, whilst Paranaense operates at a lower tier and typically enters Copa do Brasil as a secondary priority relative to their league campaign. Historical matchups between clubs at different pyramidal levels in Copa do Brasil tend to favour the higher-division side, though upsets occur regularly given the tournament's open structure. The 29% probability assigned to Goianiense suggests the market is pricing them as a genuine underdog despite their divisional advantage, possibly reflecting recent form, squad depth, or travel logistics.
Traders should monitor team news and injury reports in the days before the fixture, as Copa do Brasil matches often see rotated squads when clubs juggle league commitments. Confirmation of the match venue and any weather alerts affecting travel to or from Goiás will influence betting patterns. Recent fixture congestion in the Brazilian calendar and any midweek league matches scheduled immediately before or after 14 May could shift the probability, particularly if either side fields a weakened eleven. Official team sheets typically emerge 24 hours before kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AC Goianiense vs. CA Paranaense" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: