Trade: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $12K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Draw (SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf) | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Market context
SpVgg Greuther Fürth will host TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, 17 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (interpreted as a Fürth victory or draw, depending on market definition) at 37 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest confidence in that result. The settlement window closes at 13:30 UTC on match day, allowing traders roughly half a day post-kick-off to react to final confirmation.
Fürth finished the 2024–25 season mid-table in the second division, whilst Fortuna Düsseldorf has alternated between promotion contention and mid-table finishes in recent campaigns. Head-to-head records between these clubs show competitive, often close encounters; neither has established clear dominance. The current 37 per cent probability suggests the market is pricing in either a Fortuna win or a draw as more likely outcomes, consistent with Fortuna's recent form trajectory and home-ground advantage if applicable.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official lineups in the days preceding the fixture, particularly injury status of key players. Fortuna Düsseldorf's league position and recent results through May will be the primary catalyst shaping probability shifts. Weather conditions on match day and any late tactical announcements may also influence order-book depth closer to kick-off. The settlement window's early closure means live-match information will be critical for final positioning.
Wikipedia Context
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SpVgg Greuther FürthSpielvereinigung Greuther Fürth, commonly known as Greuther Fürth or by their historical name, SpVgg Fürth, is a German football club based in Fürth, Bavaria. They play in the 2. Bundesliga, the second tier of the German football league system, following relegation from the Bundesliga in the 2021–22 season.
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SpVgg Greuther Fürth II
SpVgg Greuther Fürth II is the reserve team of the German association football club SpVgg Greuther Fürth from the city of Fürth, Bavaria.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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