Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Greek Basketball League game, scheduled for April 25 at 11:15AM ET: If the AEK win, the market will resolve to "AEK". If the Olympiacos B.C. win, the market will resolve to "Olympiacos B.C.". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. | 0% YES | 100% NO |
AEK Athens and Olympiacos B.C. meet on 25 April in a Greek Basketball League fixture. The match is scheduled for 11:15 AM ET, with settlement occurring on 2 May at 15:15 UTC. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero implied probability for an AEK victory, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in an Olympiacos outcome or insufficient liquidity at current price levels. This extreme positioning warrants scrutiny given the compressed timeframe between now and the game.
Olympiacos holds the stronger historical record in Greek basketball, having won multiple domestic championships and consistently competing at the highest level. However, AEK has demonstrated competitive capacity in recent seasons, and single-game outcomes frequently diverge from season-long performance hierarchies. The 0% probability reflects either a consensus view of Olympiacos superiority or a market failure where traders have not yet committed capital to back AEK at any price. Historical patterns in Greek league fixtures show that underdogs secure victories in roughly 35–40% of matchups against top-tier opponents, suggesting the current probability may not fully account for baseline upset risk.
Key variables include team roster availability, injury reports, and recent form heading into the fixture. Any announcement regarding key player absences for either side could materially shift the probability structure. Additionally, the settlement window extends to 2 May, creating a seven-day window post-game for result confirmation. Traders should monitor official Greek Basketball League communications and team announcements in the days immediately preceding the match, as postponements or cancellations would trigger the market's contingency provisions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.esake.gr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C." are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$566 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.esake.gr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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