Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for June 3 at 7:00PM ET: If Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins". If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to "Toronto Marlies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies | 57% YES | 43% NO |
The American Hockey League matchup between Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and Toronto Marlies on 3 June at 7:00 PM ET represents a playoff-stage contest where the winner advances or secures positioning within the AHL's postseason structure. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 57% implied probability favouring the Penguins, suggesting market participants assess them as slight favourites despite the Marlies' status as the Toronto Maple Leafs' primary affiliate and generally competitive AHL franchise.
Historical AHL playoff dynamics show that home-ice advantage carries measurable weight, with teams playing at their designated arena winning approximately 55–60% of playoff contests over recent seasons. The Penguins' affiliation with Pittsburgh provides access to call-up depth and organisational support, whilst the Marlies benefit from proximity to NHL-level coaching infrastructure. Current probability formation reflects these structural factors alongside recent regular-season performance metrics and head-to-head records between the franchises.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through 3 June, particularly any late injuries or emergency recalls that could alter lineup composition. Weather conditions affecting travel to the venue and any schedule adjustments warrant attention, though postponement risk appears minimal given the playoff window. The settlement mechanism includes overtime and shootout provisions, meaning the final result determination extends beyond regulation play. The 50–50 contingency for cancellation without rescheduling introduces tail risk, though such outcomes remain statistically uncommon in professional hockey scheduling.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$59 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $32 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 57%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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