Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the DFB-Pokal. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of DFB-Pokal per the rules of DFB-Pokal (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bayern Munich | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| SC Freiburg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Leverkusen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| VfB Stuttgart | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Team A | — | |
The DFB-Pokal is Germany's premier knockout cup competition, contested annually by clubs from the Bundesliga and lower divisions. The 2025–26 edition will culminate in a final scheduled for June 2026, with the tournament running through the spring months. The 82% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong market confidence in the listed club's prospects, though this varies considerably depending on which team is specified in the market.
Historical DFB-Pokal outcomes show significant concentration among elite clubs. Bayern Munich has won the competition 20 times, most recently in 2023, whilst Borussia Dortmund, Hamburg, and Schalke have each claimed multiple titles. However, the cup's knockout format creates genuine upset potential; lower-division sides regularly eliminate Bundesliga opponents, and semi-final draws can dramatically shift probabilities for any remaining contender. The current 82% probability suggests the listed club ranks amongst Germany's established contenders rather than an underdog, though knockout tournaments inherently carry execution risk across multiple rounds.
Traders should monitor squad fitness and injury updates as the tournament progresses through winter and spring 2026, particularly for key players in January and February. Fixture congestion in the Bundesliga and European competitions will affect team rotation decisions. The settlement window closes on 6 June 2026, providing a narrow buffer after the final; any administrative delays in champion declaration could trigger settlement disputes. Recent tournament schedules and draw details will be published by the DFB in advance, allowing traders to reassess probabilities once opponents are confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/dfb-pokal-b7e326e52e.jpg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "DFB-Pokal: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $55 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/dfb-pokal-b7e326e52e.jpg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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