Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Serie A per the rules of Serie A (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Treviso | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Varese | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Aquila Basket Trento | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Tortona | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Pallacanestro Trieste | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Snaidero Cucine Udine | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Trapani Shark | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2025–26 Serie A season will determine Italy's top-flight football champion, with the campaign running from August 2025 through May 2026. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an unnamed team or a technical listing issue, as established Serie A contenders—Juventus, Inter Milan, and AC Milan—typically command substantial backing in championship markets. The absence of meaningful liquidity at any price suggests the market may not yet have attracted sufficient trader interest or the underlying team designation requires clarification before positions accumulate.
Historical Serie A markets have resolved based on final league standings determined by points accrued across 38 matches. Juventus has won fifteen titles since 1995, whilst Inter and Milan have each claimed multiple championships in recent decades. The competitive balance has tightened considerably; the past five seasons have seen different winners, with no team establishing sustained dominance. Current market pricing across comparable football championship markets typically reflects pre-season squad composition, managerial stability, and injury status as primary drivers of probability shifts.
Traders should monitor squad announcements through the summer 2025 transfer window, managerial changes, and early-season fixture results from August onwards. Financial fair play compliance and European competition demands—particularly Champions League participation—affect domestic focus and squad rotation. Key catalysts include injury updates to star players and mid-season managerial changes, which have historically shifted championship odds by 5–15 percentage points. Settlement occurs upon official confirmation from Lega Serie A by 20 December 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Serie A: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38 in lifetime turnover and $31 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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