Trade: How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $697
- Total Volume
- $497
- 24h Volume
- $200
- Open Interest
- $680
Market outcomes
| 1 | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| 3 | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 5 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 0 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| 2 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 4 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 6+ | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
The Space Weather Prediction Center monitors solar activity for major disturbances capable of disrupting communications, power grids, and satellite operations. This market settles on whether at least one geomagnetic storm (G3+), solar radiation storm (S3+), or radio blackout (R3+) occurs during the week of 10–16 May 2026. The 35% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate expectations for significant space weather activity during this seven-day window.
Historical data shows that major space weather events cluster unpredictably around solar maximum phases. The current solar cycle (Cycle 25) reached peak activity in late 2024, meaning May 2026 falls within the declining phase where G3+ events become less frequent but remain possible. Between 2023 and early 2025, weeks with at least one G3-level or stronger event occurred roughly 30–40% of the time during active periods, though this drops substantially during quieter phases. The probability baked into today's order book sits at the lower end of historical active-phase frequencies, suggesting traders are pricing in some seasonal moderation.
Traders should monitor the Space Weather Prediction Center's 3-day forecasts and solar wind data released daily, particularly coronal mass ejection observations from SOHO and STEREO satellites. The Kp index, which measures geomagnetic disturbance strength, typically shows 6–12 hour lead time before major events manifest. Solar flare activity on 9–10 May will be the primary catalyst determining whether conditions favour G3+ or S3+ events during the settlement window. Real-time solar imagery and NOAA space weather alerts remain the most reliable data sources for traders tracking this market through Friday.
Wikipedia Context
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Mani Majra
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Many More RoadsMany More Roads is the third studio album by Jamaican reggae artist Ky-Mani Marley. It was released on May 29, 2001, through Artists Only! Records. Production was handled by Lincoln Ward, Michael Coburn, Christopher Garvey, Clifton Dillon and Derrick Barnett, with Tyrone Smith serving as executive producer. It was nominated for a Grammy Award for Best Reggae
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Many MarriagesMany Marriages is a novel by Sherwood Anderson published in 1923. In this novel, Anderson continued his use of new psychological insights to explore his characters.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$497 in lifetime turnover and $697 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for space contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $200 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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