Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Senegal, scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the France vs. Senegal match originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
France and Senegal will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 6% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders view a specific scoreline as unlikely, though the exact outcome depends on which result is being priced.
Exact-score markets in football typically carry low probabilities for any single result because the outcome space is fragmented across dozens of plausible scorelines. Historical precedent shows that even heavily favoured teams rarely settle on a single predicted score; the 2022 World Cup saw France defeat Argentina 3–3 after extra time, with the final regulation score of 2–2 representing just one of many possible outcomes. France enters 2026 as defending champions with stronger squad depth than Senegal, but group-stage matches often feature tactical caution and defensive organisation that compress scoring.
Key variables for traders include team selection announcements closer to June, injury reports for key players, and the broader tournament context—whether either side has already qualified or been eliminated before this fixture. Recent squad rotations and coaching changes in both nations' qualifying campaigns will signal tactical intent. Polymarket's order book will likely see movement once the final tournament draw confirms group positioning and match scheduling, as traders reassess probabilities based on actual fixture sequences and knockout implications.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "France vs. Senegal - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $67K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: