Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Venice, Italy mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on May 24 and 25, 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for June 7 and 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Venice as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Andrea Martella | 85% YES | 15% NO |
| Simone Venturini | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Michele Boldrin | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Pierangelo Del Zotto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Giovanni Andrea Martini | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person A | — | |
| Person B | — | |
Venice's municipal administration will hold elections on 24–25 May 2026, with a potential runoff on 7–8 June should no candidate secure an outright majority in the first round. The settlement window closes on 25 May 2026, meaning the market resolves based on the election outcome itself rather than any subsequent runoff result. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability for a decisive first-round winner, suggesting traders assess a strong likelihood that one candidate will exceed the 50% threshold required to avoid a second ballot.
Italian municipal elections typically produce clear first-round majorities in cities where incumbent coalitions remain stable or where opposition consolidation is incomplete. Venice's recent political history—including the 2021 election won by Luigi Brugnaro with approximately 76% support—provides a comparable baseline for assessing whether fragmentation or consensus-building patterns might shift the probability. The current 85% YES pricing suggests the market views 2026 conditions as similarly conducive to avoiding a runoff, though local coalition dynamics and candidate announcements between now and May will be material.
Traders should monitor candidate declarations and coalition agreements from early 2026 onwards, as formal endorsements and withdrawal announcements typically reshape first-round viability assessments. The Veneto regional political context and any shifts in national Italian government composition could influence local campaign momentum. The resolution deadline of 25 May 2026 creates a tight window for price discovery immediately following the vote count.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Venice Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$81K in lifetime turnover and $86K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for rewards 50 4pt5 20 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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